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The Dallas Cowboys were pioneers in computer data simulation.
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Sportsmaster was the largest civilian computer ever built, and there were some that said it was even bigger than the Pentagon computer that controlled the nation’s defenses. Its master memory banks contained all the data on sports and sports figures that anyone anywhere had ever bothered to put down on paper or film or tape. It was designed to prepare detailed, full-color, whole-cloth simulations, for both standard television wall screens and the new holovision sets. ~ George R.R.Martin
In the relaunch here From the 55 to Gridiron America Radio, one of the things we have wanted to explore more is the subject of sports simulation, just not for American football, but also other sports, hopefully in conjunction with other podcasts here on
the Sports History Network. Let's make it clear to the newbie though, simulation sports are not fantasy sports that play in the present. Rather, in simulation sports we play in the past, much like you do with table top games like
Strat-o-Matic and
APBA, where the real world numbers of past performance matter and dictate what MIGHT have occurred at any projected point in time.
The Dallas Cowboys were the pioneers in the use digital data to grade players and prospects, and in their own way led the way toward where the NFL and all sports are now at in the use of computers to simulate, model and predict what may or may not happen on the field. Today, the prediction of George R.R. Martin has come true, for computer football simulation programs are everywhere. The most popular is of course Madden, but since we are an old school type of internet radio show, we would rather skip all the fancy graphics and music and return to the old ways of text, numbers, spreadsheets and couple that with the proprietary AI provided by our very own
Sportsmaster Simulation Games, based here in Japan.
Utilizing SSG's fabled cutting edge Japanese グーグル ジェミニ AI technology, we posed the question that seemed the best way to test a gnawing question many in Texas might have had in 1978. The question is simply this- might the Cowboys won Super Bowl XIII and been the greatest team of the '70s had they cut a sweetheart deal with cross state rival and traded for the number one pick to get Earl Campbell for pairing with Tony Dorsett in the backfield?
Going into the 1978 season, the Dallas Cowboys were the kings of the mountain, having just dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XII. They boasted the league's top-ranked defense and a highly efficient offense led by Roger Staubach. However, the 1978 season was a turning point for the NFL—the schedule expanded to 16 games and the "Mel Blount Rule" (limiting contact with receivers) was implemented.
For Gridiron America listeners and readers, here is the breakdown of why a blockbuster trade for the #1 overall pick—Earl Campbell—would have sent shockwaves through Texas and the NFL in this "What If?" simulation. Let's break it all down, and remember, what we propose here is meant to engage debate and discussion, for clearly we are in some ways utilizing what my father called the SWAG method (scientific wild ass guess) by employing computer AI simulation in order to model out this first of what will be many SHN "What if?" models for futures that never were.
The Trade Logic: Why Dallas Pulls the Trigger
In 1978, Tex Schramm and Gil Brandt were obsessed with staying ahead of the curve, and the Cowboys of course were the true pioneers in the NFL when it came to using computers to help grade and select potential draft picks. During their championship run, Robert Newhouse was a reliable "human bowling ball" who gained 721 yards in 1977, Schramm likely saw the potential for a "Nuclear Option." Thus, the creation of the "Twin Towers" Backfield" by pairing the reigning Rookie of the Year, Tony Dorsett, with the most dominant power runner in college history, Earl Campbell, would theoretically create an unstoppable offense.
Of course this trade would have happened over the objection of Tom Landry, whose "Flex Defense" and "Multiple Offense" relied on precision and depth. Thus, the prospect of trading three years of first and second-round picks (1978–1980) would be heresy to Landry, as it would gut the pipeline of young talent needed to sustain a dynasty. However, said dynasty could never be as long as the Steelers, and Raiders challenged again.
The Trade Logic: Why Houston Says Yes
Meanwhile, down in Houston, Bum Phillips was a "win now" coach who famously said the Oilers were "knocking on the door" of the Super Bowl. In this almost unthinkable simulation, Houston gives up the chance to draft a local legend (Campbell) for a king’s ransom of six high-value picks plus a proven veteran in Newhouse. Considering where the Oilers were at the time, such a deal is not such an unfathomable idea, for back in the '70s draft picks were even more valuable than they are today.
By trading one man for a boat load of current and future draft choices, the chances would have been good that those picks would turn into gold, if not in '78 than soon thereafter.Ironically, both teams were also facing the same mutual problem, and that was the Steelers" Because to beat Pittsburgh, you needed depth and a punishing ground game. With Houston's acquisition of Newhouse—who knew how to win championships—and a massive haul of picks to build a "Doomsday South" defense, giving up Earl Campbell might have made sense just to overcome Pittsburgh's perpetual chokehold on the AFC Central. Because if Houston ever wanted to reach the Super Bowl, the road to it, no matter what in the '70s, went right through Three Rivers Stadium.
The Simulated Upsides: 1978 and Beyond
For the simulated 1978 season, the Cowboys would likely become the first team to feature two 1,500- yard rushers. Defenses in 1978 were not equipped to handle both the lightning of Dorsett and the thunder of Campbell. It is our hypothesis that with lightening and thunder in the backfield, Dallas should steamroll through the regular season with a 14–2 or 15–1 record. On the flipside, there should be a "Luv Ya Blue" shift, for without Campbell, the Oilers should not have the "identity" they had in real life, but, in this imaginary computerized NFL, the influx of Dallas draft picks could hypothetically allow them to draft defensive stalwarts like Mike Singletary or Howie Long in the following years, potentially making them more balanced than the real-life Campbell-centric Oilers.
The Simulated Downsides: The Long-Term Toll
For the Cowboys, the downside of such a trade would be the un-Cowboy like draft drought, whereas in the real 1978–1980 drafts, Dallas selected key contributors like Dennis Thurman and Ron Springs. In this simulation, the Cowboys would lose all that future depth. The result of which would be that, by 1981, as players like Ed "Too Tall" Jones and Harvey Martin aged, the team would have no young stars to replace them. There is also the "One Ball" problem, whereby Campbell and Dorsett were high-volume runners. In the simulation, you might see "diminishing returns" where one star's stats suffer to feed the other, leading to locker room friction that never existed in the real-world Cowboys' culture. Finally, there would be an Oiler identity crisis, as such deal would to trade away the "soul" of their franchise before Campbell ever took a snap. Finally, while they might be "smarter" on paper with more picks, they would lose the "Luv Ya Blue" era's real life emotional connection with the city, which was arguably just as important as the wins.
Preseason Prediction For the 1978 Dallas Cowboys
It is our hypothesis that this simulated trade will turn turn the 1978 Cowboys into the greatest "Madden" team of the 70s, but also effectively sets a timer on the dynasty. While they likely win a Super Bowl in 1978 or 1979 with both Campbell and Dorsett in their prime, a veteran Staubach under center, and of course an aging Doomsday, the lack of draft picks would cause a catastrophic collapse by the early 80s—years before the real-life decline began. As for Oilers? Well, it is likely their end in Houston would have come even earlier then it did when they eventually left for Tennessee even with the plethora of high draft picks gifted from Dallas, and that Warren Moon would have landed elsewhere in the NFL and possibly won a Super Bowl with another team after he proved himself as a champion in the Canadian Football League.
NFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
| Division | Team | W-L-T | Pct | PF | PA |
|---|
| East | x-Dallas | 14-2-0 | .875 | 397 | 201 |
| East | St. Louis | 11-5-0 | .688 | 303 | 212 |
| Central | x-Minnesota | 9-7-0 | .563 | 261 | 275 |
| West | x-Los Angeles | 13-3-0 | .813 | 368 | 204 |
| West | New Orleans | 11-4-1 | .719 | 388 | 290 |
AFC PLAYOFF TEAMS
| Division | Team | W-L-T | Pct | PF | PA |
|---|
| East | x-New England | 12-4-0 | .750 | 386 | 274 |
| Central | x-Pittsburgh | 13-3-0 | .813 | 401 | 240 |
| Central | Houston | 9-7-0 | .563 | 314 | 302 |
| West | x-Seattle | 12-4-0 | .750 | 447 | 327 |
| West | San Diego | 10-6-0 | .625 | 377 | 257 |
SIMULATED POSTSEASON RESULTS
| Wild Card | San Diego 37, Houston 14 | New Orleans 14, St. Louis 13 |
| Divisional | New England 24 Seattle 10 | Los Angeles 24 Minnesota 7 |
| Divisional | Pittsburgh 17 San Diego 16 | Dallas 14 New Orleans 7 |
| Championship | Pittsburgh 20, New England 7 | Los Angeles 20 Dallas 9 |
| SUPER BOWL XIII | Los Angeles 8 Pittsburgh 7 |
COWBOYS STATISTICAL COMPARISON
Reality (1978 Actual) vs. Simulation (Trade for Earl Campbell)
| Category |
1978 Reality |
Simulation |
| Record |
12-4 |
14-2 |
| Points For |
384 |
397 |
| Staubach |
231/413 25 TDs |
252/438 25 TDs |
| Dorsett Rush Yds |
1,325 |
796 |
| Campbell Rush Yds |
1,450 (with HOU) |
1,368 (with DAL) |
The Backfield Dynamic
The simulation created a "Thunder and Lightning" backfield that dominated the regular season. Earl Campbell finished with 1,427 yards and 16 TDs, while Tony Dorsett added 796 yards and four TDs.
However, the trade for Campbell cost Dallas their early-round draft depth. While the defense remained elite (allowing only 12.6 points per game), the simulation penalized the Cowboys' passing efficiency. In the playoffs, Roger Staubach's interception rate skyrocketed to 12.2%, leading to the heartbreaking 20-9 loss to the Rams.
The below summary of this beta SHN simulation scenario breaks down the "What if?" of the 1978 NFL Simulation, comparing the data-driven alternate reality of the Earl Campbell Cowboys against the historical record.
The first question after comparing the simulation to the reality for us, was Dallas losing to LA expected? The Verdict is simple, This was a statistical collapse. Specifically, in the real 1978 playoffs, Dallas demolished the Rams 28–0. However, in this simulation, the Cowboys lost 20-9 in the NFC Championship. In breaking it down, the simulated Cowboys were a regular-season juggernaut, finishing 14–2 (compared to 12–4 in reality) and allowing a league-low 12.6 points per game. Yet, despite having Campbell and Tony Dorsett, the simulation reports show a complete offensive seizure in the postseason. Scoring only six points in a playoff game is an indictment of the "Two-Headed Monster" theory. By trading away three years of first and second-round picks, the Cowboys sacrificed the depth needed to pivot when the Rams’ defense—historically the number one yardage defense in 1978—clamped down on the run.
The second question we had was how did Houston compensate for the loss of Earl Campbell?
Simple, it was defensive depth and "The Newhouse Factor." Houston truly was the surprise of the simulation, making a playoff run despite losing the number overall pick. In reality, Campbell carried the Oilers to the AFC Championship; however, in this simulation, Houston compensated with the Robert Newhouse acquisition and, after the season, with the payoff from the surplus of Dallas draft picks. Newhouse provided the veteran stability Bum Phillips needed, but the real long term effect we believe would be the advantage from those picks that he theorize would come to fruition in future years. The simulation shows also that, absent Campbell, Houston still had a bolstered roster that remained competitive in the AFC Central, proving that while the Tyler Rose offered a higher "ceiling," the Dallas trade provided a higher "floor."
The third question is simply, was the end result of Pittsburgh winning the Super Bowl inevitable?
Bottom line, yes. Clearly the "Steel Curtain" was and is |SIM proof. The simulation concludes with Pittsburgh as the champion, mirroring reality. The 1978 Steelers (13–3 in the sim) were at the absolute peak of their powers, and in the SIM their defense allowed only 15 points per game. Even with Dallas adding Campbell, the Cowboys couldn't overcome the "Mel Blount Rule" adjustments as efficiently as Terry Bradshaw did in 1978. Pittsburgh’s transition to a high-powered passing attack (Bradshaw was the real MVP that year) made them more versatile than a Dallas team that became overly reliant on the ground game. So even had the Cowboys made it to the Super Bowl, in the SIM the results would still have been the same- the Steelers would likely have won the championship.
When discussing this SIM, there was another nagging question that no one really had thought about until after the results came in, that being "were the Rams better in real life than they have been given credit for? Yes, and if you remember the Rams of that era you know they were criminally underrated, and this simulation validates what many historians forget: the 1978 Rams were a powerhouse. In the real 1978, the Rams went 12–4 and had the best defense in the league in terms of yards allowed and featured Hall of Famer Jack Youngblood and a ferocious front seven. The simulation 20-9 victory over Dallas highlights that the Rams' defense was capable of shutting down anyone, even a backfield of Campbell and Dorsett. In real life, the Rams were one win away from the Super Bowl, but got smoked 28-0 due in LARGE part to five Doomsday interceptions and a complete offensive implosion by Pat Haden and Vince Ferragamo. The simulation suggests that had the Rams offense showed up, the NFC Championship would have gone right down to the wire and they would have beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl in an 8-7 defensive battle in the Orange Bowl.
Lastly, would the result of this SIM been any different had Campbell stayed in Houston? Well, no, because ultimately the end result of the season would still have been the same. If Campbell stays in Houston (as happened in reality), the "Draft Pick Debt" would not cripple Dallas, and the "Identity Crisis" would not hit the Oilers. For Dallas, in a SIM where Campbell stays in Houston, the Cowboys likely keep their 12–4 record and thus maintain the draft picks that would eventually become the core of their early 80s teams. They also keep the Dorsett the Newhouse chemistry that led them to the real-world Super Bowl XIII. Finally, as for for Houston, Campbell remains now and forever the on field "Luv Ya Blue" icon.
Final Conclusion: The simulation proves that more talent does not equal better results. By concentrating all their assets into Earl Campbell, Dallas became a "brittle" team—unstoppable in the regular season but prone to total failure if a defense like the Rams found a way to stop the run. The trade was a "win-now" gamble that failed. It boosted regular-season wins but destroyed the offensive chemistry and future depth required to beat a balanced Pittsburgh team. The simulation confirms that the 1978 Steelers, even though they lost 8-7 to the Rams, were the team of the decade for a reason: they were built, not bought, and had a Steel Curtain that few could penetrate.
In 1978, Tex Schramm and Gil Brandt were obsessed with staying ahead of the curve, and the Cowboys of course were the true pioneers in the NFL when it came to using computers to help grade and select potential draft picks. During their championship run, Robert Newhouse was a reliable "human bowling ball" who gained 721 yards in 1977, Schramm likely saw the potential for a "Nuclear Option." Thus, the creation of the "Twin Towers" Backfield" by pairing the reigning Rookie of the Year, Tony Dorsett, with the most dominant power runner in college history, Earl Campbell, would theoretically create an unstoppable offense. 
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